By Chudi Onuoha
Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, has posted a 50 percent lead in a nationwide opinion poll conducted by a media research and analytics company, Track and Field.
The poll conducted over a three-week period captured respondents from all states of the country and the Federal Capital Territory and was tagged Nationwide and Grassroots Poll.
The researchers said they used the Delphi method which is a qualitative method of forecasting, where experts answer several rounds of questionnaires.
According to the company, “the survey considered only the four major political parties -All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria People Party (NNPP), and PDP.
While PDP’s Atiku led the poll by 50 percent, APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu placed second with 30 percent while LP’s Peter Obi came a distant third with 15 percent while Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP placed fourth with just five percent.
According to the Poll, Atiku, in Week one of the polls led in Adamawa (65%), Akwa (46%), Bauchi (50%), Bayelsa (57%), Benue (36%), Delta (68%), Edo (52%), Kaduna (32%), Kano (37%), Kebbi (52%), Kogi (55%), Kwara (58%) Niger (52%), Please (56), Sokoto (62%), Tarawa (72%) Yobe (39%) while FCT had 48%.
In the same week, APC’s Tinubu received favourable polls in Borno state (68%), Cross River (40%), Ekiti (68), Gombe (49%), Jigawa (39%), Katsina (42%), Lagos (60), Nasarawa (58), Ogun (43), Ondo (55%), Osun (62%), Oyo (46%) and Zamfara (47%).
Peter Obi of the Labour Party led, in the first week of the poll in Abia (47%), Anambra (56%), Ebonyi (52%), Enugu (53%), Imo (50%), and Rivers (43).
On the other hand, Kwankwaso of NNPP led only in Kano with 34%.
In the second week of the polls, Atiku led in Adamawa (65%), Akwa Ibom (46%), Bauchi (60%), Bayelsa (58%), Benue (36%), Delta (70%), Edo (52%), Kaduna (32%), Kebbi (52%), Kogi (55%), Kwara (58%), Niger (62%), Osun (48%), Oyo (41%), Plateau (56%), Rivers (45%), Sokoto (62%) Taraba (72%), Yobe (40%) and FCT (48%).
In the same second week of the poll, APC led in Borno (50%), Cross River (40%), Ekiti (59%), Gombe (48%), Jigawa (42%), Katsina (40%), Lagos (6[%), Nasarawa (44%), Ogun (43%), Ondo (56%), Yobe (40%) and 47% in Zamfara.
The Labour Party candidate boasts of wins, in the second week, in Abia (47%), Anambra (56%), Ebonyi (52%), Enugu (53%), and Imo (50%).
NNPP’s Kwankwaso won no state in the second week. His first-week lead in Kano, was, however, taken over by Atiku’s PDP.
In the third week of the poll also, Atiku won Adamawa (82%), Akwa Ibom (65%), Bauchi (60%), Bayelsa )58%), Benue (47%), Delta (75%), Edo (62%), Gombe (48%), Kaduna (43%), Kano (46%), Katsina (58%), Kebbi (57%), Kogi (53%), Kwara (58%), Nasarawa (43%), Niger (67%), Osun (48%), Oyo (45%), Plateau (61%), Rivers (48%), Sokoto (73%), Tarawa (72%), Yobe (40%), Zamfara (45%) while in FCT he braced the tape with 55%.
In the same period, APC’s Tinubu won in Borno (50%), Cross River (49%), Ekiti (59%), Jigawa (44%), Lagos (69%), Ogun (43%), Ondo (56%) and 49% in Yobe, sane as Atiku. Labour Party maintained its lead in the five southeast states in the third week of the poll with Abia (47%), Anambra (50%), Ebonyi (43%), Enugu (50%), and Imo (40%).
And for the second week, Kwankwaso’s NNPP could not tie a lead in any state. Its first-week lead in Kano has been taken over by PDP which pushed it down to second place.
Meanwhile, Labour Party’s lead in the southeast states was cut down by the PDP. LP won Anambra with 56% in the first and second weeks. It was cut down to 59% in the third week by PDP which won 40% against its earlier showing of 33% and 34% in the first and second weeks.
PDP also moved up in Imo state to close week three at 30 percent up from 20 percent in the first and second weeks of the poll.
In Enugu, Atiku PDP also moved up to 32 percent in the third week up from 25 percent recorded in the first and second weeks.
Overall, the polls indicated an improvement for Atiku’s PDP across the geopolitical zone with a strong lead in critical states. By the end of the third week, Atiku and PDP led in 25 states and the FCT against 17 states and FCT in the first week of the poll.
The questionnaire administered by the pollster contained the following variables:
1. Which of the candidate would you consider with a better experience in governance?
2. Which of the candidates would you trust to bring Nigeria out of its present predicament?
3. Which of the candidates do you consider a true democrat?
4. In terms of patriotism and nationalism, which of the candidates would you rate the best?
5. Which of the candidates has a better understanding and answers to the following issues:
c. Poverty and youth empowerment
6. In terms of preparedness for solid leadership, how would you rate each candidate in terms of the following ratings?
a. Not prepared
c. Well prepared
7. Who among the candidates chose the best running mate?
8. In terms of articulation, coherence and mental alertness at political rallies, which candidate has impressed you the most?
9. In terms of engagement with the media, which of the candidates is more willing and accessible?
10. Based on experience, campaign promises, articulation of national issues, and national acceptance, which of the candidates will win the presidential election?